BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in New York has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+183%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in New York: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161022
2027161022
2028161122
2029161122
2030161122

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Number Four8720161967
Mcdonough5820171967
Penfield4820251968
Degrasse4720251980
N Wilmurt4319981967
Nashville4220181967
Wanakena4220251980
North Easton4120251969
Cayuga3820251969
Sheridan3420251966
Inlet3220171979
Branchport3020241968
Highmarket3020251967
Macdougall2820251971
Cicero Ctr2720251966
Alder Creek2720041968
Kasoag2720251966
Dannemora2420061968
Dexter Lake2219751968
Hauppauge2020181990
Rifton2019861967
Ghent2020251966
Cobleskill2020231969
Phillips Cr2020251967
Swain2020071967

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.