BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Maine has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+105%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Maine: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maine is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.9–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maine is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.9–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026114.718
2027114.818
2028114.818
2029114.818
2030114.918

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kittery Pt10320251966
Newcastle4520241971
Forest Sta3720001966
Manchester3219951971
Turner3120101972
Ludlow3019981968
Hudson2920161973
Northfield2719811976
Grnd Lk Strm2720001966
St David2620051983
Washburn2320051979
Topsfield2319961978
Medway2120251976
Cornville2120252012
Cooper2020211975
Deblois2020071966
Searsport2020252002
Aurora1920211975
Ft Fairfield1820051993
Reeds1720251990
Hermon1720211966
Baxter1719881977
Benton1619801971
Winn1520251969
Waite1519771977

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.