BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Maine has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has risen sharply in Maine: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025114.418
2026114.418
2027114.518
2028114.518
2029114.518

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newcastle4520241971
Forest Sta3720001966
Manchester3219951971
Turner3120101972
Ludlow3019981968
Hudson2920161973
East Troy2820191976
Northfield2719811976
Grnd Lk Strm2720001966
St David2620051983
Charleston2520191977
Brooks2320191977
Washburn2320051979
Topsfield2319961978
Kittery Pt2220241966
Hermon2020191966
Cooper2020211975
Deblois2020071966
Aurora1920211975
Reeds1820241990
Ft Fairfield1820051993
Baxter1719881977
Medway1720181976
Benton1619801971
Eastbrook1620241971

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.