BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Connecticut has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+237%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Connecticut: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Connecticut is projected to rise about 231% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 3.6–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+231%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Connecticut is projected to rise about 231% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 3.6–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025132.823
2026133.023
2027133.223
2028133.423
2029143.624

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren13220111972
Willimantic2420181969
Long Hill2120191979
Uncasville1420241977
E Hartland1319921966
Mystic920231973
Sherman820191972
Warren 2720242012
Woodstock620071968
New Hartford619871974
Woodstock 2620242016
Buckingham420221970
New Hartford320241994
No Woodbury220241967
Danbury220231971
Mid Haddam220241976
Southington220241975
Westbrook120121977
Greenwich120171981
Granby120241988

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.