BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.1 (95% range 2.7–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.1 (95% range 2.7–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.92.67.3
20275.02.67.3
20285.02.67.4
20295.02.77.4
20305.12.77.4

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater4520001994
Chatfield 23020252003
Glendale2920251993
Minnetonka2720251982
Hartland2320071978
Knapp2320251981
Brook Park2120251998
Waskish2020251978
Oklee1520111969
Edwards1220241973
Mahtowa1220231993
Sherburne Nr1220251991
Tamarac Nwr1220241991
Millville1120251981
Crane Lake1120251969
St Stephen1020251967
Cromwell1020251967
Tenney1020131993
Sawbill Lndg1020251973
Bena1019771967
Nebish1020251982
Caledonia920101995
Nett Lake920242013
Wigwam Bay820231967
Red Lake820251993

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.