BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Kansas has surged: up 338% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+338%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Kansas: up 338% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Kansas is projected to rise about 379% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+379%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Kansas is projected to rise about 379% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.001.3
20260.540.001.3
20270.540.001.3
20280.550.001.3
20290.550.001.3

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton3420212021
Kanopolis819931993
Beloit 2820132013
Galesburg620092009
Wellington620222003
Hanover620221992
Seneca320211981
Hollenberg320191990
Gove319971986
Severance320242000
Jamestown320142011
Humboldt220032003
Ellinor219971997
Buckeye219971997
Rock Creek220192001
Covert220032003
Bucyrus220232022
Berwet220182015
Lincolnville220152015
Beloit220022002
Solomon219971997
Olathe120211993
Dover120151992
Barclay120141990
Wreford120102007

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.