BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in North Dakota has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+173%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cedar Waxwing Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in North Dakota: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cedar Waxwing Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in North Dakota is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.8–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in North Dakota is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.8–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.11.66.7
20264.21.66.8
20274.31.76.8
20284.31.86.9
20294.41.86.9

Cedar Waxwing Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zap4220241967
Turtle Mtns1820241980
Dunn Center1620241974
Bentley1320082007
Gorham1020181994
Sydney819811979
Tobacco820181968
Kempton720161982
Cooperstown620241969
Niles620181992
Sheyenne Lk620231987
Lakota 2520132013
Emerado420241975
Montpelier420241996
Horsehead Lk320152001
Buchanan320221980
Lakota320091995
Dickinson320241992
Carpio320231967
Roosevelt Pk320181984
Forman220161979
Walcott220151992
Edgeley220192013
Lake George219831967
Wimbledon220222007

Cedar Waxwing Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.