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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia has surged: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+468%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.15
20270.080.000.15
20280.080.000.16
20290.080.000.16
20300.080.010.16

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural Retrt320242021
Iron Mtn.320102008
W Augusta220251996
Hebron220122012
Quinby120082008
Churchville119931993
Gr North Mtn120232000
New Market120252025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.