BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York has surged: up 376% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+376%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New York: up 375% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.92–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.92–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.842.3
20261.60.862.3
20271.60.882.3
20281.60.902.3
20291.60.922.3

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newcomb2120221971
Inlet1620171979
Underwood 21320092005
Horseshoe L.1120171992
Blue Ridge S1020101969
Swain920071969
Sabattis919831966
Highmarket820241975
Blue Ridge N720241969
Hope Falls719951968
Warrensburg720191967
Gabriels720241975
St Regis Fls720171976
Number Four619971968
Old Forge620061971
North River520071966
Degrasse420241984
Wanakena420241980
Parishville420241985
Huntington319811981
Branchport320221997
N Wilmurt319981968
Underwood319961970
Balmat320071977
Petersburg220111968

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.