BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York has surged: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+314%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New York: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.91–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.91–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.832.3
20271.60.852.3
20281.60.872.3
20291.60.892.3
20301.60.912.3

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newcomb2120221971
Inlet1620171979
Gabriels1320251975
Underwood 21320092005
Horseshoe L.1120171992
Blue Ridge S1020101969
Swain920071969
Wanakena920251980
Sabattis919831966
Hope Falls719951968
Warrensburg720191967
St Regis Fls720171976
Number Four619971968
Old Forge620061971
Highmarket520251975
Blue Ridge N420251969
S Berne 2420252014
Huntington319811981
Phillips Cr320251979
Branchport320221997
N Wilmurt319981968
North River320251966
Degrasse320251984
Underwood319961970
Balmat320071977

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.