BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Massachusetts has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+365%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Massachusetts: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.39–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.39–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.331.9
20271.10.341.9
20281.10.351.9
20291.20.371.9
20301.20.392.0

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ware River820221993
Wellfleet 2720252016
Princeton419761969
N Orange420251968
Chesterfield420251970
Warren320061968
Prattville220191967
Maynard220221993
N Oxford219681968
Belchertown220251967
S Barre220221977
Cape Cod Ns219931993
Hancock220131998
E Dennis120211982
Marion120251975
Wellfleet119971987
Brockton120162016
Newburyport120171968
Littleton120221969
Mansfield120241993
E Pepperell119941982
Cummington120141968
Cheshire119941988
Pittsfield120011970
Sheffield120121981

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.