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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan has surged: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

33×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Michigan: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.94.8
20263.42.04.9
20273.52.15.0
20283.62.15.0
20293.62.25.1

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gibbs City1820241982
Raco1520241971
Cluster Lakes1520102006
Gooseneck1420102008
Hiawatha Nf1320241992
Sidnaw1320241993
Betchler Lks1220241993
Sand Lake1020241980
Bootjack920231967
Wilson920101971
Muskallonge920241968
Ensign920102006
Cunard820211974
Shingleton820241977
Seney Nwr820241992
Scott'S Marsh820102006
Marenisco720191981
Brocky Lake720241980
Imp Lake720191992
Pine River720211993
Riggsville620191974
Red Oak620221985
Big Island Lake620102008
Ontonagon420191967
Walloon Lake 2420242006

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.