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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

35×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Michigan: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.2–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.04.9
20273.52.04.9
20283.52.15.0
20293.62.25.0
20303.72.25.1

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raco1520251971
Cluster Lakes1520102006
Gooseneck1420102008
Ishpeming1220251981
Gibbs City1020251982
Betchler Lks1020251993
Bootjack920231967
Brocky Lake920251980
Wilson920101971
Muskallonge920241968
Ensign920102006
Cunard820211974
Scott'S Marsh820102006
Marenisco720191981
Crystal Fls720251979
Tahquamenon720251974
Imp Lake720191992
Pine River720211993
Sidnaw720251993
Isabella 2720252013
Ned Lake620251986
Creighton620251978
Riggsville620191974
Red Oak620221985
Hiawatha Nf620251992

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.