BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-47%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.48
20270.120.000.47
20280.110.000.47
20290.110.000.46
20300.100.000.46

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carrizozo519821982
Ojo Sarco420251981
Mt. Taylor420121993
Emory Pass320171993
Claunch219991978
Mt. Taylor 2220242015
Reserve220052005
Vicks Peak220161993
Claunch 2220172002
Cebolla120221980
Pecos120091995
Horse Mtn119941994
Dulce120252025
Angel Fire 2120182009
Cloudcroft120251981
Angel Fire120021992
Mcgaffey120192000
Vallecitos120231994
Gallinas120211992
Pinon119961996
Bluewater Lake120211999

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.