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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Connecticut has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-59%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has fallen sharply in Connecticut: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.100.000.27
20240.100.000.26
20250.100.000.26
20260.090.000.26
20270.090.000.26

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mystic120191980
E Hartland119841977
Woodstock119761971
Westbrook119991993
Willimantic119771977
No Woodbury119841984
Sherman120081995
Greenwich120001972
New Hartford120221995
Warren120071974
Mid Haddam120161993
New Hartford119861974
Granby120171988

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.