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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Alaska has surged: up 930% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+930%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Alaska: up 930% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Alaska is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.27–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Alaska is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.27–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.230.66
20270.450.240.67
20280.460.250.68
20290.470.260.68
20300.480.270.69

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kachemak820251992
Willow720252017
Kalifonsky620252013
Anchor River420241995
Dillingham320191997
Hope320251993
Cohoe320232012
Burma Road220231997
Thompson Pas220162005
Hyder219941994
Chiniak120251985
Nabesna Road119961996
Slana119971997
Kuskulana120251990
Chistochina120212021
Northway120232023
Mccarthy Rd2120242024
Stikine River120191998
Juneau120251993
Unalakleet River120101996
Haines119911991
Hoonah119981998
Nicholai Sl120252025
Whale Pass120232008
Skagway120251996

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.