BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Colorado has surged: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+440%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Colorado: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.77 (95% range 0.42–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.77 (95% range 0.42–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.381.1
20260.740.391.1
20270.750.401.1
20280.760.411.1
20290.770.421.1

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Fork1120241996
Mount Evans720241996
Trail Ridge Road620072003
Lost Lake620241990
Steamboat L.620242000
Douglas Pass520191985
Buffalo Park520231992
Westcliffe520161998
Heeney520192017
Red Cliff420241989
Groundhog Rs420241992
Cochetopa Pass420241999
Moon Pass420242003
Rosevale320172013
Comanche Pk320241994
Pinos Creek319901989
Gold Hill 2320232018
Thomasville320181997
Gold Hill320121998
Radium320111998
Nucla320242008
Yampa220211995
Colona220121994
Castleton220241988
Guffey220241992

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.