BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in West Virginia has surged: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+800%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in West Virginia: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.42 (95% range 0.21–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.42 (95% range 0.21–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.170.60
20260.400.180.61
20270.410.190.62
20280.410.200.63
20290.420.210.64

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run820021988
Glade Run 2820242004
Glady520242001
Green Bank520231978
Wymer220151995
Bemis220242001
Bismark219851985
Ruthbelle220162016
Dailey120231980
Sleepy Creek119791979
Shanghai120022002
Valley Head119821982
Three Forks119841984
Denmar120241992
Richwood120132013

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.