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Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+111%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Maine: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.4–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.4–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.42.26.6
20264.42.26.6
20274.52.36.6
20284.52.36.7
20294.62.46.7

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury Pd1719681968
Seboomook Lk1520141972
Wilson Mills1120241983
Northfield1019811976
Carrabassett1020241983
Aurora920211975
Baxter919881977
Hudson920161973
Reeds820241990
Carrying Pl820241980
Ludlow819981968
Boundary820161993
Nesowadnehun820211990
Benton719801977
Winn720221969
Medway720181976
Grnd Lk Strm719991966
Horse Mtn720111983
East Troy620191973
Brooks620191977
Cooper620211975
Wytopitlock619981976
Weeks Brook620161995
Greenwood420231975
Eastbrook420241971

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.