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Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+149%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Maine: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.6–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.6–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.62.46.9
20274.72.46.9
20284.72.57.0
20294.82.57.0
20304.82.67.1

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilson Mills2420251983
Carrying Pl1820251980
Pillsbury Pd1719681968
Wytopitlock1620251976
Seboomook Lk1520141972
Winn1520251969
Reeds1320251990
Eastbrook1320251971
Northfield1019811976
Aurora920211975
Baxter919881977
Hudson920161973
Charleston820211975
Ludlow819981968
Boundary820161993
Nesowadnehun820211990
Benton719801977
Brooks720211977
Grnd Lk Strm719991966
Horse Mtn720111983
Cooper620211975
Weeks Brook620161995
Harmony520251968
Hermon520211967
Stacyville520252021

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.