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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+204%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Arizona: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.001.2
20260.580.001.2
20270.590.001.2
20280.590.001.2
20290.590.001.2

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry Park1120241992
Mt. Graham920231995
Tsaile620222006
Round Rock319701970
Forest Lakes320061992
Portal220241978
Rucker219961995
Prescott220221976
Aztec Peak219781974
Williams220132013
Tonto Vill.220152014
Kaibito220082008
House Rock119941994
Flagstaff120161988
Sawmill120081989
Mormon Lake119751974
Zeniff119841984
Blue119881974
Pinetop120221993
Alpine120231992
Happy Jack120161986
Carr Mtn120041990
Sprucedale120101994

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.