BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana has surged: up 415% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+415%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Montana: up 415% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana is projected to rise about 129% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana is projected to rise about 129% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.31.75.0
20273.41.75.0
20283.41.85.1
20293.51.85.1
20303.51.85.2

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Painted Rock1920221992
St Regis1520251977
Skalkaho1519981992
Thompson Riv1420241993
Woodman1320251968
Swan Lake1320252015
Maynard Coulee1220252017
Greenoagh 21120112005
Greenough920041995
Greenoagh 3920252012
Whitefish Lake820242016
Ninemile820251993
Fish Creek820241995
Reed Point720251978
Cramer Creek620192003
Elevation Mt620252003
Inside Road620251990
Pagil Gulch620252015
Hebgen Lake520252017
Logan Pass320251980
Victor320251993
Threemile Wa320251993
Brandenberg320141981
Skalkho-Rye320221999
Noxon320231995

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.