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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana has surged: up 625% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+625%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Montana: up 625% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.0–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.0–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.85.0
20263.51.95.1
20273.51.95.1
20283.62.05.2
20293.62.05.2

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard Coulee2320242017
Painted Rock1920221992
St Regis1720241977
Skalkaho1519981992
Thompson Riv1420241993
Pagil Gulch1320242015
Greenoagh 21120112005
Greenoagh 31120242012
Libby Dam1020241979
Hebgen Lake1020242017
Logan Pass920241980
Greenough920041995
Elevation Mt820242003
Whitefish Lake820242016
Swan Lake820242015
Ninemile820241993
Fish Creek820241995
Kalispell620241970
Cramer Creek620192003
Inside Road620241990
Victor520241993
Threemile Wa420241993
Arlee320241968
Pryor Mtn.320241995
Woodman320241968

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.