BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota has surged: up 776% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+776%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in South Dakota: up 776% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota is projected to rise about 106% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 1.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+106%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota is projected to rise about 106% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 1.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.71.110
20265.71.110
20275.81.210
20285.91.311
20296.01.411

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Mountain4620041992
Norbeck4320021992
Englewood4120211992
Silver City3820121992
Black Fox2920171992
Hill City2620131992
Rochford2420181992
Lightning Cr2020221992
Custer2020241967
Long Draw1620241992
Wind Cave Np1220241999
Hazelrodt1120241992
Roubaix Lk619911967
Pleasant Val320241992
Reva220241992

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.