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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+209%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in North Carolina: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.010.23
20260.120.010.23
20270.120.010.23
20280.120.020.23
20290.130.020.23

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Highlands720241998
Linville520241976
Cullowhee420241980
Table Rock220222021
Hamlet219971997
French Broad River220222005
Cherokee220242011
Jones Corner219971997
Waterville120171998
Busick119981994
Kyle120152014
Oteen120182018

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.