BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

15×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Wisconsin: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.2–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.2–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.04.0
20263.02.04.0
20273.12.14.1
20283.12.14.1
20293.22.24.2

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcnaughton2020241970
Land O Lakes1620161967
Wausaukee1620241980
Eagle River1420241967
Amberg1320241980
Conover1220241998
Land O' Lakes 21220242017
Popple River1020241966
Washington I920241970
Union Twp820241975
Pigeon Creek820241999
Bayfield720241967
Rhinelander720231998
Irma620241967
Crandon520191970
Mather520231966
Mellen520241998
Iron River420241968
Grand View420241966
Shanagolden420241973
Cumberland420241969
Phillips420241980
Rib Lake420241973
Flambeau420241998
River Falls420122012

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.