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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Wisconsin: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.2–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.2–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.04.0
20273.02.14.0
20283.12.14.1
20293.12.24.1
20303.22.24.2

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wausaukee2120251980
Mcnaughton2020241970
Land O Lakes1620161967
Popple River1620251966
Union Twp1420251975
Bayfield1320251967
Phillips1320251980
Iron River1220251968
Eagle River1120251967
Bashaw920251999
Cavour820251998
Land O' Lakes 2820252017
Rhinelander720231998
Chaffey620251967
Amnicon Falls620251998
Mellen620251998
Minong520251969
Irma520251967
Mather520231966
Cumberland420241969
Rib Lake420251973
Conover420251998
Flambeau420251998
River Falls420122012
Grand View320251966

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.