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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

17×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Minnesota: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.33.0
20272.21.43.1
20282.31.43.1
20292.31.43.1
20302.31.53.2

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm2220242019
Glendale1620251993
Sherry Lake1320221970
Crane Lake1320251970
Nett Lake1020242013
Cass Lake920161980
Cromwell920251967
Hovland920251973
Hart Lake920251967
Blackduck920222004
Bigfork820251993
Sawbill Camp720251993
Backus520252013
Lockport520251971
Little Fork420241972
Sawbill Lndg320251973
Bena319771977
Debs320251972
Mcgregor320211993
Jordan320251993
Nebish220251985
Wigwam Bay220152015
Pine River220251979
Edwards219871987
Floodwood220251970

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.