BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Vermont has surged: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+568%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Vermont: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Vermont is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Vermont is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.23.6
20262.41.33.6
20272.51.33.6
20282.51.33.7
20292.51.33.7

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Middlesex1220241968
St Johnsbury920241973
East Calais920241966
Hardwick520241975
Newbury 2520232008
Stratton420241967
East Haven420241966
Northfld Fls420171980
Marlboro320241968
Landgrove320231969
Newbury320041988
S Reading220241968
S Wallingfrd220101967
Greensboro220241968
Colchester219901987
North Pownal120191969
Gaysville120141983
Post Mills120241966
Shaftsbury120041969
W Rutland120221973
Fletcher120241975
Hinesburg119831979
Grand Isle119831983
Stowe120241988
Bristol120001998

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.