BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Utah has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+167%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-breasted Nuthatch Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Utah: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.69–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.69–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.621.9
20261.30.642.0
20271.30.652.0
20281.30.672.0
20291.30.692.0

Red-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge1920241993
Red Spur Mtn.1620231997
Soapstone1520241992
Heber Mtn.1520241996
La Sal 31020242007
Navajo Lake920241970
Wasatch Nf920241990
Lost Cr. Res620181995
Bryce Canyon520241990
Richfield520191996
La Sal420001993
Fish Lake Nf420211992
Logan Canyon320191997
La Sal 2320062003
Woodruff320242002
Moon Lake 2220232004
Hyrum219791976
Moon Lake220031993
Skyline Driv220161987
Gooseberry220221994
Dixie Nf220211993
Beck 2220181991
Hanna220021999
Ferron220212000
Uintah Nf219941989

Red-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.