BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Virginia has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181323
2026181323
2027181323
2028181323
2029181324

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finchley5820211994
Hall5620231967
Branchville5320241966
Wylliesburg4720191971
Quinby4220241966
Newsoms4220241967
White Stone4020241966
Newville4020241988
Brandon3920241992
Walkers3720231992
Surry3420241977
Moran3420241996
Partlow3320151977
Truhart3320241996
Amherst3020241967
Mannboro3020241967
Natural Brid2920241974
Lake Anna2920242021
Big Island2820241968
Church Road2820241966
Brodnax2720241973
Gloucester2720241992
Port Royal2520191977
Ringgold2520241976
Pungo2520241975

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.