BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Virginia has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 14–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Virginia is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 14–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181323
2027181324
2028191324
2029191424
2030191424

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finchley5820211994
Branchville5320241966
Brodnax4820251973
Wylliesburg4720191971
Quinby4620251966
Ringgold4220251976
Newsoms4220241967
Moran4220251996
Newville4020241988
Brandon4020251992
White Stone3820251966
Carters Brdg 23820252015
Walkers3720231992
Big Island3620251968
Surry3420251977
Partlow3320151977
Truhart3320241996
Gloucester3220251992
Pungo3120251975
Hall2920251967
Edinburg2720251968
Port Royal2720251977
Amherst2720251967
Church Road2620251966
Irisburg2520251976

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.