BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Kentucky has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151019
2027151019
2028151020
2029151020
2030151020

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil9419971996
Paintsville6719951979
Bays Fork4720191999
Gatewood3220191966
Levee 22720192007
Hegira2620241988
Kehoe2519921966
Dixie2420191971
Buena Vista2320171966
Merrimac2120241967
Monticello2020221968
Shiloh1920251967
Beattyville1920011966
Eastview1920251967
Iron Bridge1819981966
Sulphur Lick1720241966
Pleasurevill1720251987
Johnsonville1620211966
Sunnybrook1520221968
Plum1520251966
Beattyville 21520242006
Pine Ridge1419781966
Mcbrayer1420251966
Canton1320251967
Apex1320252005

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.