BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in North Dakota has surged: up 721% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+721%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in North Dakota: up 721% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 4.3–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 4.3–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.14.06.2
20275.24.16.3
20285.34.26.4
20295.44.36.5
20305.44.36.6

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns2420251980
Abercrombie1920121967
Regan1620251997
Denbigh1620251971
Emerado1120251975
Carpio920231977
Dickinson820251977
Loraine820191986
Sheyenne Lk820252003
Forman620251982
Kempton620171968
Webster620241991
Tobacco620131969
Edgeley520251984
Cooperstown520251969
Walcott420231967
Nash420171980
Niles420251992
Golva420251995
Douglas Crk420251984
Montpelier420252001
Wimbledon320251981
Stanley320251967
Gorham320251969
Roosevelt Pk320191982

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.