BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Ohio has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+173%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Ohio: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 21–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 21–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026252030
2027252030
2028252030
2029252030
2030262131

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fulton5220251966
Kalida4120251966
Lucerne4120251992
Stonecreek4120251996
Harveysburg3919961966
Marion 23920252024
W Carrollton3920151989
Marion3720231966
Kings Creek3220151992
Smithfield3220251966
Norwalk3220241979
Casstown3220252000
Darrtown3020211966
Lockport2920251967
Bismark2919951967
Wayland2920171992
Coal Run2919921966
Ashley2920181988
Pittsfield2820241992
Kenton2820251966
New Dover2720221966
Lattasburg2720251967
Newcomerstwn2719951966
Botkins2520191992
Baxter Ridge2520251998

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.