BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Arizona has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.92–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.92–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.895.3
20263.10.905.3
20273.10.915.3
20283.10.915.3
20293.10.925.3

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tsaile3920231993
Dry Park2820241992
Happy Jack2720241977
Forest Lakes2520241992
Alpine2020231992
Sawmill1820141988
Williams1820191993
Mormon Lake1619751968
Zeniff1619841968
Pinetop1520221993
Yampai1219771969
Black Mesa1119951988
Sprucedale1020231992
Greasewood819961993
Clay Spring820241988
Flagstaff720221988
Seligman720231996
Mt Trumbull619791976
Portal620211976
Rucker620091993
Cow Springs520221993
Tonto Vill.420211994
Peach Spring420211992
Page320111995
Maine320241992

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.