BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Arizona has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Arizona is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.99–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Arizona is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.99–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.10.965.3
20273.10.975.3
20283.20.975.3
20293.20.985.3
20303.20.995.3

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tsaile3920231993
Dry Park2820251992
Tonto Vill.2520251994
Happy Jack2220251977
Sawmill1820141988
Mormon Lake1619751968
Zeniff1619841968
Pinetop1520221993
Forest Lakes1320251992
Yampai1219771969
Alpine1220251992
Clay Spring1220251988
Black Mesa1119951988
Flagstaff1120251988
Williams1020251993
Greasewood819961993
Seligman720231996
Mt Trumbull619791976
Rucker620091993
Maine620251992
Cow Springs520221993
Sprucedale520251992
Portal420251976
Page320111995
Oraibi220182018

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.