BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Missouri has surged: up 215% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+215%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Missouri: up 215% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Missouri is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.113
2027118.214
2028118.414
2029118.514
2030118.714

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade4020251967
Emden3320242017
Akers3120251967
Osage Beach2920251997
Kahoka22820242002
New Hampton2420252014
Rensselaer1920251971
Huntsville1920251967
Moselle1920252000
Eugene1720252013
New Point1620251994
House Springs1620252017
Hayden1520251975
Syracuse1520241969
Sticklervill1520251970
Barks1520251994
Mincy1520252013
Bennett1420251994
Centertown1320251973
Kearney1320251994
Frankford1320251987
Lincoln1320252013
Gerald1320252013
Peace Valley1220251975
Graniteville1220251982

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.