BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+109%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Massachusetts: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 29–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 29–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025332740
2026342740
2027342841
2028352841
2029352942

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton11120191967
Chesterfield5220241967
Wellfleet 24620242016
Mansfield4520241968
Belchertown4520241967
S Barre4520241968
Marion4020241966
Newburyport3920221967
Prattville3820191966
Pittsfield3820161967
Maynard3520221967
N Orange3220241968
Warren 22820242010
Holden2620241977
Cape Cod Ns2320071989
E Pepperell2119941966
Warren2120091968
Monterey2120242019
Gay Head1720241996
N. Andover1620241995
Sheffield1520221969
Wellfleet1120071966
N Oxford1120241968
Cummington1020141968
Cummington 21020242015

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.