BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+115%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Massachusetts: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 35 (95% range 29–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 35 (95% range 29–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026342740
2027342841
2028352841
2029352941
2030352942

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton11120191967
Maynard6320251967
Chesterfield5420251967
Mansfield5220251968
S Barre5220251968
Belchertown4820251967
Marion4520251966
Wellfleet 24120252016
Newburyport3920221967
N Orange3920251968
Prattville3820191966
Pittsfield3820161967
Holden3420251977
N Oxford2420251968
Cape Cod Ns2320071989
E Pepperell2119941966
Warren2120091968
Monterey1720252019
Warren 21720252010
Sheffield1520221969
Gay Head1420251996
N. Andover1420251995
Wellfleet1120071966
Cummington1020141968
Littleton920251967

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.