BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 17–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 17–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025241731
2026241731
2027241731
2028241731
2029241731

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portersville8019881973
Sardis6119741967
Waterstreet5620241968
Greentown4920241969
Rector4619771966
Chatham4620241997
Berwick4220241985
Rasselas4020221969
Ryde3920051968
Wild Creek3920241988
Pocono Summit3720241966
Pine Gr Mill3720241967
Leola3720241998
Pocono Summit 23620102004
Stoneybreak3620241992
Big Flat3519811966
Harmonsburg3420231966
Brunnerville3420091969
Mifflintown3120241966
Scheafferstn3120011966
West Grove3119961966
Drehersville3019991966
Schaefferstown 23020242002
Mill Run3020241978
Jacobus3020241986

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.