BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 16–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 16–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241631
2027241631
2028241631
2029241631
2030241631

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portersville8019881973
Sardis6119741967
Waterstreet5620241968
Canadensis5520251969
Greentown4920241969
Rector4619771966
Stoneybreak4320251992
Rasselas4020221969
Munson4020251979
Ryde3920051968
Chatham3820251997
Rosecrans3720251969
Doe Run3720251969
Wild Creek3720251988
Pocono Summit 23620102004
Berwick3620251985
Ramsey3520251968
St College3520251969
Big Flat3519811966
Brunnerville3420091969
Mill Run3420251978
Pine Gr Mill3320251967
Virginia3120251969
Scheafferstn3120011966
West Grove3119961966

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.