BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Utah has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Utah: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.28.1
20265.73.38.2
20275.83.38.2
20285.83.48.3
20295.83.48.3

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge4220241986
Dixie Nf3520241993
Bryce Canyon3020241990
Lost Cr. Res2620181995
Navajo Lake2220241968
Moquith Mtn2120241987
Richfield2120191994
La Sal 31720242007
Bonanza1620151992
Alton 21620242021
La Sal 21520062003
Heber Mtn.1420241996
Hardware Ranch1320231994
Alton1320191997
Hyrum1119791975
Fish Lake Nf1120241992
Glen Canyon1120241991
Jericho Junction1120241997
Wasatch Nf1020241988
Gooseberry1020241994
Soapstone920241992
La Sal920001993
Uintah Nf819941987
Beck 2820181990
Red Spur Mtn.820231997

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.