BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Utah has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Utah: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.4–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.4–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.73.38.1
20275.73.38.2
20285.83.38.2
20295.83.48.2
20305.93.48.3

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grizzly Rdge4120251986
Dixie Nf3720251993
Navajo Lake3020251968
Fayette3020251992
Lost Cr. Res2620181995
Bryce Canyon2520251990
Richfield2120191994
Ferron1820252000
La Sal 31820252007
Soapstone1720251992
Skyline Driv1620251986
Bonanza1620151992
La Sal 21520062003
Alton 21520252021
Hardware Ranch1320231994
Alton1320191997
Hyrum1119791975
Woodruff1120252002
Beaver1020251968
Wasatch Nf1020241988
Moquith Mtn1020251987
Beck 21020251990
La Sal920001993
Heber Mtn.920251996
Uintah Nf819941987

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.