BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in New Jersey has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New Jersey is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 18–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New Jersey is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 18–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221727
2026231728
2027231828
2028231828
2029231828

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodbury Hgt6220241967
Hope4019941970
Winslow3820241989
Albion3620221966
Pedricktown3420121991
Croton3020071970
Pedricktown 23020242013
Cape May Ch2820131992
Kemah Lake2720241966
Pomona2720241978
Six Points2520241978
Holmansville2520091969
Ramseysburg2520241995
Bennett Mill 22320242016
Dover2220231977
Croton 22120242008
Spraguetown 32020242021
Cranbury1920241987
Greenwich1820241966
Toms River1820241966
Bloomsbury1820241969
Bennett Mill1620001966
High Point1620241977
Friendship1520241977
Midvale1220221967

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.