BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in New York has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in New York. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201624
2027201624
2028201624
2029201624
2030201624

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville8120251968
Macdougall7320251969
Orleans6220251967
North Easton5120251967
Naples4520251966
E Youngstown4220251966
Castile4120251967
Bedford3719961967
Hamburg3420251967
Old Forge3320061971
Harris Hill3320252005
West Seneca3220041966
Durham3119761966
Byron3120251967
Dannemora2920061968
East Java2820251967
Penfield2820251968
N Wilmurt2819981967
S Berne 22820252014
Rifton2719861967
Dryden2720251966
Mt Hope2620101967
Ghent2620251966
Branchport2620241967
Blue Ridge S2620101969

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.