BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in New York has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in New York. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201624
2026201624
2027201624
2028201624
2029201624

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville9620241968
Naples6220241966
E Youngstown5920231966
Macdougall5720241969
Orleans5420241967
North Easton4120241967
Hamburg3920241967
Bedford3719961967
Penfield3720241968
Cayuga3520241969
Old Forge3320061971
Rushville3220241968
West Seneca3220041966
Durham3119761966
Byron3120241967
Dannemora2920061968
N Wilmurt2819981967
Rifton2719861967
Castile2720241967
S Berne 22720242014
Mt Hope2620101967
Branchport2620241967
Blue Ridge S2620101969
Dexter Lake2619751968
Parishville2620241968

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.