BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Texas has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.63 (95% range 0.25–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.63 (95% range 0.25–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.630.251.0
20270.630.251.0
20280.630.251.0
20290.630.251.0
20300.630.251.0

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Allen Creek1320251994
Bear Mtn1020251988
Leakey1020251994
Utopia920251969
Pidcoke919961971
Liberty Hill920251968
Cottonwood719861967
Smyrna 2720252011
Toyahvale620252001
Easton620041994
Boerne520191967
San Saba520251971
Diboll520251970
Massey Lake520051997
Oakwood519951995
Indian Mtn520251976
Montell520251995
Lockhart420211993
Caledonia420251969
Weinert419711971
Mertzon420102007
Dripping Spg420251992
Laredo420122009
Salt Flat420132010
Silver420112011

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.