BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Texas has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.24–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.24–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.251.0
20260.630.241.0
20270.630.241.0
20280.620.241.0
20290.620.241.0

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Utopia2120241969
Allen Creek1520241994
Pidcoke919961971
Rockspring920161994
Indian Mtn820241976
Cottonwood719861967
Caledonia620211969
Easton620041994
Boerne520191967
Massey Lake520051997
Oakwood519951995
Toyahvale520122001
Lockhart420211993
Crossroads420241967
Weinert419711971
Mertzon420102007
Laredo420122009
Montell420241995
Salt Flat420132010
Silver420112011
Valley Spgs320151971
San Saba320241971
Morton320241970
Hearne320162016
Leakey320241994

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.