BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.2–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.2–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.11.26.9
20274.11.26.9
20284.11.26.9
20294.11.26.9
20304.11.26.9

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pecos3420171973
Mt. Taylor2720121993
Angel Fire2220021992
Mt. Taylor 22020242014
Stinking Lk.1919991992
Mountainair1520241993
Cebolla1420231973
Claunch 21320252001
Dulce1220252000
Reserve1220251993
Mcgaffey1120251994
Bluewater Lake1120211999
La Cienega1020221968
Vallecitos920251994
Ojo Sarco720251968
Claunch720001977
Angel Fire 2720252005
Quemado619971993
Capulin519931993
La Plata 2520162014
La Plata520131991
Red Rock520252004
Pinon520241992
Fence Lake420251975
Carrizozo420251968

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.