BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Arkansas has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.16.1
20274.12.16.1
20284.12.26.1
20294.12.26.1
20304.22.26.1

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stark1920251967
Magazine Mtn1520251993
Nance1520251992
Maynard1020251994
Ravenden Springs1020152010
Harrisburg920191967
Compton920221967
Springhill920222010
Russell820212010
Blakely719991968
Saffell720191967
Avoca620241967
Zion520251967
Crows419911967
Coal Hill420231967
Centerton420252010
Farwell420182010
Marshall420212011
Old Milo320141967
Eudora319741974
Ozark Nf320251991
Massard320221967
Fulton320251967
Ramsey219961967
Hope220251967

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.