BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Tennessee is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025128.916
2026139.016
2027139.216
2028139.316
2029139.416

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy5720241966
Humboldt4720241972
Mansfield2820241966
Indian Mound 22520232004
Collinwood2320241966
Union Hill2220241967
Oliver Spgs1920221966
Walland1919891966
Jasper1820241967
Belotes Bend1720181966
Peytonsville1720241966
Sweetlips1520231966
Silerton1420241976
Wrigley1420221966
Climer1420041967
Corryton Rd1420191966
Mt Olive1420241966
Jones Gap1420191982
Indian Mound1319981966
Tiptonville1220231966
Trenton1220231991
Tullahoma1220151967
Jefferson Cty1220111966
Petersburg1120191966
Whiteville1020241967

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.