BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi has surged: up 619% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+619%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Mississippi: up 619% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.1–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.41.94.9
20273.52.05.0
20283.52.05.1
20293.62.15.1
20303.72.15.2

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tupelo4620221974
Water Valley2720182015
Corinth2220251972
Trace Attala1920192016
Okatibbee L.1820081996
Fort Adams1820121978
Holly Springs1720242009
Cockrum1520242000
Duffee1420081973
Trace Lorman1120192016
Lucien1020131974
Fayette1020081966
Mt Carmel920161990
Trace South820192016
Olive Branch720011967
Monticello720082007
Weir720252016
Duck Hill620251970
Forest620251972
Scooba619811968
Waynesboro620081990
Olive Branch 2620222016
Grenada Lake420191997
Star420252016
Leaf River420132013

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.