BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska has surged: up 556% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+556%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Nebraska: up 556% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.0–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.0–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.33.77.0
20275.43.87.0
20285.53.87.1
20295.63.97.2
20305.74.07.3

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murdock2120252018
Eagle Creek1420251967
Gretna 21120252019
Gretna1020181969
Richland1020251968
Brady920251995
Chambers920252023
Thurston820251980
Tilden820252019
Madison820252018
Boelus720222018
Lyons720252018
Liberty 3720242009
Bartley620251994
Sparta620251969
Crescent Lk619921992
Wheeler Co620252000
Johnson520251985
Belvidere520251991
Seward520251969
Kearney520251993
Table520251973
Crawford520241980
Julian420251969
Sumner420251975

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.