BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska has surged: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+612%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Nebraska: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.43.86.9
20265.43.97.0
20275.54.07.1
20285.64.07.2
20295.74.17.3

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sparta1920211969
Murdock1920242018
Julian1520241969
Madison1320192018
Eagle Creek1220241967
Gretna1020181969
Richland1020241968
Tilden920242019
Nenzel820242018
Ponca820242018
Lyons820242018
Kenesaw720242001
Petersburg720231990
Midway720231984
Boelus720222018
Liberty 3720242009
Seward620241969
Crescent Lk619921992
Crookston620242018
Hendley620212018
Sumner520241975
Thurston520241980
Crawford520241980
Pine Ridge520231999
Belvidere420241991

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.