BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Maryland has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Maryland: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025352941
2026352941
2027352941
2028363042
2029363042

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Madonna9120222009
Cokesbury8620241966
Island Creek8620241991
Ijamsville7720241986
Earlton7120242014
Olney6520241966
Finzel6020241995
Emmitsburg5920241966
Williamsport5820241966
Harmony5820171966
Forest Grove5820232011
Tall Timbers5420141966
Eklo5320181966
Jennings5220241995
Hughesville5020241966
Elkton4520241966
Piney Neck4220241966
Wheaton4220241990
Smithsburg4120141966
Van Bibber4120131966
St. George'S Island4020172015
Davidsnville4020241982
Pr Frederick3920241991
Pt Republic3819891966
Warfieldsbrg3720241966

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.