BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Maryland has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Maryland: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026352941
2027352941
2028363042
2029363042
2030363042

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island Creek10020251991
Olney9620251966
Madonna9120222009
Ijamsville8020251986
Cokesbury7320251966
Finzel7120251995
Earlton7120242014
Emmitsburg6720251966
Harmony5820171966
Forest Grove5820232011
Williamsport5720251966
Tall Timbers5420141966
Eklo5320181966
Piney Grove5120251995
Hughesville5020251966
Pr Frederick4720251991
Warfieldsbrg4620251966
Wheaton4420251990
Smithsburg4120141966
Van Bibber4120131966
Jennings4020251995
Green Ridge4020251995
St. George'S Island4020172015
Pt Republic3819891966
La Plata3320091966

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.