BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Montana has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Montana. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 4.3–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 4.3–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.94.39.5
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20296.94.39.5

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Creek3320241995
Maynard Coulee2720242017
Clinton2520241972
Libby Dam2420241979
Painted Rock2320221992
Clancy2320232015
Greenoagh 32320242012
Woodman2120241968
Noxon2120231995
Threemile Wa1920241993
Skalkaho1619981992
Arlee1520241968
Chestnut1520241968
Ninemile1520241993
Hebgen Lake1520242017
St Regis1420241977
Jordan1420241968
Elevation Mt1420241994
Swan Lake1220242015
Freeman Creek1220162015
Greenough1220041995
Pryor Mtn.1220241995
Kalispell1120241968
Sula1020241977
Red Rock1020241973

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.