BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Montana has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Montana. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Montana is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.74.19.4
20276.84.19.4
20286.84.29.4
20296.84.29.4
20306.84.29.4

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Creek3320241995
Clinton2620251972
Maynard Coulee2620252017
Hebgen Lake2420252017
Ninemile2320251993
Painted Rock2320221992
Greenoagh 32320252012
Libby Dam2220251979
Threemile Wa2220251993
Noxon2120231995
St Regis2020251977
Reed Point2020251977
Pryor Mtn.1720251995
Skalkaho1619981992
Woodman1520251968
Jordan1420241968
Clancy1420252015
Elevation Mt1320251994
Arlee1220251968
Freeman Creek1220162015
Greenough1220041995
Sula1020241977
Inside Road1020251990
Whitefish Lake1020242016
Swan Lake1020252015

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.