BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.815
2026129.815
2027139.915
2028131015
2029131015

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bagley4420061995
Knapp3320241967
Edwards3120241973
Brook Park3120241998
St Stephen2920161967
Debs2920241969
Whitewater2920001994
Jordan2620231993
Crane Lake2420241969
Pine River2320241967
Osseo1920241967
Worthington1920242004
Hart Lake1720241967
Chatfield 21720242003
Huntley1620241967
Ash Creek1620241975
Nebish1620231982
Maynard1520151971
Bena1519771967
Fairmont1520231993
Le Center1520231993
Brainerd1520241993
Babbitt1520231994
Evergreen1420241967
Oklee1420211969

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.