BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026139.915
20271310.015
2028131015
2029131015
2030131015

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bagley4420061995
Knapp4220251967
Minnetonka3320251969
Edwards3120241973
Debs3020251969
Whitewater2920001994
Fairmont2820251993
St Stephen2720251967
Evergreen2720251967
Caledonia 22520252013
Hart Lake2420251967
Crane Lake2420251969
Ash Creek2020251975
Nebish2020251982
Lakeville1920251968
Pine River1920251967
Le Center1920251993
Brook Park1920251998
Osseo1820251967
Jordan1820251993
Millville1620251970
Backus1620251967
Huntley1520251967
Maynard1520151971
Bena1519771967

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.