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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jackson7220171995
Rheasville5820172005
Oakboro5620251969
Durham5520251990
Youngsville5220251966
Ostwalt5120252012
Cherryville4519681966
Jordan4420251966
Climax4320251966
Rose4120251968
Congleton4020252001
Flay3920251990
Cypress Lakes3820252004
Raeford3720251990
Sheffield3620251991
Sawmill3520251990
Bullock3520251997
Gupton3420252001
Eden3220251987
Pinetops3220241997
Monticello3120251990
Hulls Xroads3020231997
Jamesville2920251983
Wilgrove2820251995
Siloam2820252005

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.