BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 21 (95% range 16–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201525
2026211526
2027211626
2028211626
2029211626

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jackson7220171995
Rheasville5820172005
Ostwalt5320242012
Youngsville5120241966
Durham4620241990
Raeford4620241990
Oakboro4520241969
Cherryville4519681966
Climax4320241966
Flay4320241990
Cypress Lakes4320242004
Osmond4220242001
Jamesville4120241983
Siloam4120242005
Dudley4120242002
Congleton4120242001
Sheffield3920241991
Jordan3520241966
Rose3320241968
Mooresville 23220242006
Pinetops3220241997
Bullock3220241997
Genoa3120241990
Wilgrove3120241995
Hulls Xroads3020231997

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.