BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Kansas has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

13×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Kansas: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Kansas is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Kansas is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.52.7
20272.11.52.7
20282.21.52.8
20292.21.62.8
20302.21.62.8

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olathe1420211977
Bucyrus1120252022
Seneca1020221980
Coldwater719721972
Wreford720241977
Hanover720251972
Coats619731973
Barclay620241991
Rock Creek 2620252022
Beloit 2520172009
Hollenberg420251996
Le Loup420212000
Olsburg420252000
Ashland320011979
Dover320221999
Grantville320221988
Severance320252000
Longton320122000
Solomon320251997
Jewell 2220242008
Dalton220242011
Buckeye220231999
Goessel220232022
Melrose120182001
Galesburg120152015

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.