BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Michigan has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Michigan: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025271935
2026271935
2027271935
2028271935
2029282035

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bell Oak 26820232016
Skeels5320151966
Juniata5320241966
Fowlerville5120191974
Cohoctah5020242021
Cunard4920211973
Holt4820241969
North Branch4519991974
Maple Rapids3820231987
Drayton Plns3719871973
Howardsville3420241969
Lapeer3320242000
Lawrence2920241969
Coopersville2920241979
Pleasant Valley 22920242004
Cedar Run2919991994
Almena2820151993
Gooseneck2820102008
Riggsville2720191967
Walloon Lake2720041977
Bell Oak2520141966
Irons2419891970
Galesburg2420241966
Chippewa Lk.2320241992
Bear Lake2220241967

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.