BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Michigan has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Michigan: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Michigan is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 19–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271835
2027271935
2028271935
2029271935
2030271935

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skeels5320151966
Juniata5320241966
Fowlerville5120191974
Cunard4920211973
North Branch4519991974
Lapeer4420252000
Coopersville4320251979
Cohoctah4220252021
Maple Rapids4020251987
Lawrence3920251969
Bell Oak 23820252016
Drayton Plns3719871973
Holt3120251969
Scottville2920251968
Cedar Run2919991994
Howardsville2820251969
Almena2820151993
Gooseneck2820102008
Riggsville2720191967
Walloon Lake2720041977
Chippewa Lk.2720251992
Galesburg2620251966
Ola2620251974
Mayfield2620252000
Bell Oak2520141966

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.