BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in South Dakota has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.07–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+102%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in South Dakota is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.07–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.10.0010
20275.10.0110
20285.10.0310
20295.20.0510
20305.20.0710

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle Butte6020152001
Elk Mountain5820041992
Promise4420151988
Isabel3620152009
Silver City3020121992
Black Fox2920171992
Pleasant Val2320241992
Hill City2120131992
Roubaix Lk1919911967
Howard1420251972
Lennox1220251969
Volga1220251969
Wind Cave Np820251999
Britton720231967
Wilmot620251983
Englewood620211992
Long Draw520251992
Lane 2520142002
Raymond320211983
Veblen320231971
Custer320251967
Cedar Pass320232013
Ardmore319951994
Lacreek320182016
Norbeck320021992

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.