BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Alaska has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

-39%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Chipping Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.000.95
20260.440.000.95
20270.440.000.95
20280.440.000.95
20290.440.000.96

Chipping Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Slana1120221997
Northway520231989
Sourdough520241993
Tower Bluffs420232001
Delta420241997
Eagle320241994
Circle220221996
Chatanika R220231994
Birch Lake220212013
Koyukuk Riv.219981998
Cordova219931993
Petersville220242008
Copper River219971993
Zimovia Strt219961989
Livengood120122012
Chistochina120231998
Kuskulana120242015
Monahan119961996
Mccarthy Rd2120172015
Chena Hot Spring 2120212017
Donelly Dome120242022
Craig120121991
Haines120241994
Kanuti Canyn120232017
Mt. Fairplay120191997

Chipping Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.