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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Winter Wren Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Winter Wren in Virginia has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-18%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Winter Wren Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Winter Wren in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Winter Wren Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Winter Wren in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.09
20240.030.000.09
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09
20270.030.000.09

Winter Wren Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Winter Wren in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Mtn.320101992
Marion119771977
Gr North Mtn120162016
Rural Retrt119821982
Mountain Lk.120102010
Shenandoa Np119951995
Isom119831983
Big Meadows120061993
Iron Mountain 2120132013
Iron Mountain 3120222014

Winter Wren Population Trend in Other States

connecticutmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.